Archives: Reg Murphy Pubs

The End of the Chevron Doctrine

Written by Heather Farley on . Posted in Heather Farley, Reg Murphy.

On June 28th, the Supreme Court ended a 40-year old legal precedent that fundamentally impacts the way our federal government operates. In the decision of Loper Bright Enterprises v. Raimondo, the Supreme Court ruled on a doctrine called “Chevron deference” which allows the interpretation of laws that are ambiguous to rely on agency expertise. In other words, when laws are passed that don’t lay out specifics on how to implement the law, the responsible government agency (eg. The EPA, NASA, Postal Service, etc) is permitted to use its expertise to interpret how to regulate within the law.

The courts have historically had a two-pronged approach to this. They first determine if Congress has spoken directly to the issue or if there is ambiguity. Then, they determine if the agency interpretation is reasonable. Even if the court might prefer a different interpretation, if the agency’s interpretation is reasonable, the agency’s view is upheld. agency’s view is upheld. The court saw this as more efficient, consistent, and as a way of deferring to agency expertise. Now, that efficiency, consistency, and deference is turned on its head.

This might sound a little dry, but it’s a very big deal. Representative Buddy Carter referred to it as “the beginning of the end of the administrative state” in his weekly newsletter last week. He, like many conservatives and libertarians, feels that the federal bureaucracy has become too large and imbued with too much power.

In school, we are taught about the separation of powers within the federal government. The basic explanation is that the legislative branch writes laws, the executive branch implements them, and the judicial branch interprets them through the resolution of arguments. This explanation, however, leaves out the so-called “fourth branch of government” and its role in implementation and interpretation.

Generally, the federal bureaucracy has grown in number of employees over time, with notable spikes in periods when there is an expansion of government programs like the New Deal, in times of war, and in times of economic decline. These growth periods are not met with periods of decrease in the bureaucracy, however, as programs and agencies can be difficult to dismantle. The result is that critics point to a government that has its fingers in too many areas. It turns out a lot of Americans agree.

A 2023 Gallup poll indicated that 54% of Americans believe the government is “trying to do too many things that should be left to individuals and businesses” and 44% think there is “too much government regulation of business and industry.” These numbers fall largely along party lines.

Despite these numbers, when taken individually, many Americans have a very favorable view of specific agencies such as the National Park Service, USPS, NASA, the Social Security Administration, the CDC, and the EPA. That may seem surprising, but all these agencies pulled greater that 55% favorable ratings in 2023.  

One of the effects of ending Chevron deference is that these agencies – whether we like them or not – will no longer be able to apply their expertise to interpreting the laws they must implement. For example, let’s say that Congress passes a law related to space commercialization, but the statute has ambiguous language regarding safety standards on private space missions. Previously, NASA would interpret this ambiguity, establish safety standards, and if those standards were challenged, the court would determine if they were reasonable. Now, the courts will be able to independently interpret statutory language which could lead to a completely different sets of standards than those NASA would have set. Further, different courts could interpret the statute in different ways causing inconsistency in regulatory outcomes.

Solutions could be developed in Congress by clarifying statutory language (though that could make it very difficult to pass laws), explicitly delegating authority to specific agencies, or even through the establishment of independent review bodies that could work with agencies to develop sound interpretations. Each of these solutions could help mitigate against the challenges this decision poses.

The question of whether the size and power of the bureaucracy is too large is valid and deserves critique. Regardless, reversing Chevron deference is going to have fundamental impacts on every agency of the bureaucracy with the potential to cause compliance challenges and fragmented regulatory outcomes. Congress, it’s your ball.

Dr. Heather Farley is Chair of the Department of Business and Public Administration and Associate Professor of Public Management at the College of Coastal Georgia. She is an associate of the College’s Reg Murphy Center for Economic and Policy Studies and an environmental policy scholar. The opinions found in this article do not necessarily represent those of the College of Coastal Georgia.

An economist’s take on Medicaid expansion

Written by Melissa Trussell on . Posted in Melissa Trussell, Reg Murphy.

In the last several weeks, my colleagues have offered their takes on Medicaid expansion in Georgia. Dr. Drew Cagle wrote that Medicaid expansion, while controversial, is a “critical step” in maintaining quality healthcare in rural Georgia. Then, Dr. Roscoe Scarborough, in his recent piece on U.S. drug overdose deaths, called out Medicaid expansion as part of the solution to our ongoing addiction and overdose problems.

I am not typically the bandwagoning type, but this is a policy topic worth a look through an economist’s lens. Medicaid expansion makes good economic sense.

Studies show that many states report improvements to their budgetary bottom lines when they expand Medicaid. This is because Medicaid expansion opens the door for more federal funding to flow into states, and it also increases tax revenue streams from healthcare providers.

But we know the true economic impact of any policy is not as simple as its explicit budget implications. True economic impact lies in a product or outcome. For Medicaid expansion, the product is healthy people. And the positive impact on an economy of healthy people cannot be overstated.

According to the CDC, U.S. employers lose an average of $1685 per employee per year due to absenteeism, disability, or reduced output caused by health problems. This is a total of over $225 billion lost per year in the U.S.

Many of these health problems — e.g. heart disease, asthma, mental health disorders, diabetes, cancer – are more prevalent among poorer Americans and are treatable or avoidable altogether with access to quality, affordable healthcare.

Health disparities, defined as health differences attributable to social, economic, and/or environmental disadvantages, lead to around $42 billion in productivity losses per year.

Moreover, an April 2024 study in the journal Health Policy found that in many cases, illness even causes poverty, sometimes with generational effects, exacerbating the problem for individuals, families, and society. The conclusion of this study was that social insurance (e.g. Medicaid) significantly weakens the effect of poor health on poverty.

Adding insult to injury, a failure to expand healthcare coverage to low income Georgians may also end up denying healthcare options to many middle or upper class Georgians in rural areas. As Dr. Cagle’s From the Murphy Center article a few weeks ago pointed out, rural hospitals are shutting down, in part due to their inability to cover services to uninsured patients.

And, an economic analysis only strengthens Dr. Scarborough’s point that Medicaid expansion can help mitigate effects of America’s current opioid / drug overdose crisis. Supply-side policy solutions, like decreasing international drug smuggling, get a lot of press, but decreasing supply increases prices, making drug sales more lucrative, and makes only a small dent in the problem of illegal drug use. This is because the market for any addictive substance is characterized by highly inelastic demand, which means that buyers in this market are willing to pay whatever it takes to satisfy their addiction. When prices rise, we do not see a sharp change in market activity. The only truly effective policies against drug addiction are policies that are leveled at demand for the drugs—recovery programs, healthcare education, and mental and physical healthcare coverage. Medicaid expansion is low-hanging fruit in this fight.

Only ten states have not yet adopted Medicaid expansion. Georgia is among them. It may make political sense to keep holding out, but it does not make economic sense.

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Dr. Melissa Trussell is a professor in the School of Business and Public Management at College of Coastal Georgia who works with the college’s Reg Murphy Center for Economic and Policy Studies. Contact her at mtrussell@ccga.edu. The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the College of Coastal Georgia.

A Tale of Two Ironies and a Solitary Socialist

Written by Don Mathews on . Posted in Don Mathews, Reg Murphy.

Properly told, the stories of two great ironies – one in the history of socialist ideas, the other in the history of capitalism – begin with French socialist, Louis Blanc (1811-1882). Let’s start with the socialist ideas irony.

One might surmise that the history of socialist ideas is loaded with ideas about socialism. It isn’t. It’s loaded with ideas about capitalism. 

From all the books, tracts, leaflets, pamphlets, primers, circulars, essays and articles that socialist thinkers have written over roughly 225 years, the pages devoted to critiquing capitalism could make a mountain range; the pages devoted to providing a blueprint of socialism, a mound.

Louis Blanc stands out among socialist writers for being the first to contribute a clump to the mound. Blanc certainly wrote more pages of capitalism critique than socialism blueprint. Nonetheless, he was the first socialist writer to offer specifics on how production in a socialist economy could be organized. Since Blanc, few socialist writers have mustered the wherewithal to venture beyond “in socialism, the means of production are owned by the people,” which barely qualifies as a doodle, never mind a blueprint. 

Blanc offered his blueprint in the last twelve pages of “The Organization of Work,” a 67-page pamphlet published in 1840. He used the first 55 pages to rage against a new kind of competition spawned from what Blanc called the “new economic regime,” which others would soon call capitalism. To Blanc, the new competition pitted worker against worker, capitalist against capitalist, and capitalist against worker in an economic civil war that spared few of poverty and no one of misery.

The solution, of course, was to replace competition with cooperation, but how to do that? Blanc’s answer: begin by introducing a new type of enterprise, the social workshop. Blanc’s social workshop amounts to a business enterprise in which workers, not capitalists, make all production and operational decisions – how the enterprise is organized, what to produce, who gets hired, who gets fired, who does what job and who gets paid what.

Blanc had no desire to vanquish capitalists. He encouraged capitalists to invest in social workshops, which would pay interest “guaranteed by the budget” on invested funds. But a capitalist would have no voice in decision-making unless the capitalist also worked in the workshop.

The social workshop’s advantage, Blanc argued, is this. In a private enterprise, the capitalist gives the orders, the workers obey. In a social workshop, the workers call the shots, so they naturally cooperate. And cooperating workers are more productive than order-obeying workers.

There is more to Blanc’s blueprint, namely the features that made it a blueprint of socialism. Blanc eventually lost faith in socialism, but not in social workshops, though none existed. He died in 1882, thinking his idea would go forever unrealized.

Yet as Blanc’s pamphlet made its rounds in 1840, American capitalism was beginning a remarkable evolution that produced enterprises run by workers. The advent of railroad and telegraph lines in the 1840s gave rise to new and larger businesses and a new kind of worker, the salaried manager. The late-1870s brought mass production, vertical integration and a much-expanded role for managers. By 1910, salaried managers, not capitalists, were making all production and operational decisions at many of America’s largest and most innovative business enterprises, including Standard Oil, General Electric and DuPont.

Thus, Louis Blanc’s dream of an enterprise run by workers was realized in capitalist America in its largest corporations. No doubt, a giant corporation is not the social workshop Blanc had in mind. Yet the fact is, capitalism’s behemoths are worker-run enterprises. Few ironies are more fun.

U.S. Overdose Deaths on the Decline

Written by Roscoe Scarborough on . Posted in Reg Murphy, Roscoe Scarborough.

The number of fatal overdose deaths in the United States peaked in May 2023 and started to decline in the latter half of the year, according to the most recent data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

An estimated 107,500 people died from fatal overdoses in the US in 2023, down from an estimated 111,000 overdose deaths in 2022. That is a 3.1% decline in overdose deaths in one year. This is the first decline in overdose deaths since 2018. The decline is modest and the data are preliminary. One might argue overdose deaths are plateauing, but it’s better news than another annual increase. Unfortunately, the US still has more fatal drug overdose deaths per capita than any other high-income nation.

Drug overdose declines are not equally distributed across our nation. All states east of the Mississippi saw a decline, except for Alabama, West Virginia, and Washington DC. Preliminary data show that Georgia saw a 5.58% decline in overdose deaths over the past year. Most states west of the Mississippi saw increases. Alaska, Oregon, Nevada, and Washington experienced over 25% increases in annual overdose deaths.

Two years ago, I wrote a column in this space about skyrocketing overdose deaths amid the COVID-19 pandemic. Many pandemic-era causes of overdose deaths have subsided. Social distancing and social isolation came to an end. Stress associated with living through a global pandemic has waned. Public health has moved beyond a myopic focus on COVID-19. All of these conditions should improve care for those struggling with addiction and reduce overdose deaths.

The US overdose crisis was once driven by prescription painkillers, then it was heroin, and in recent years fentanyl (a synthetic opioid) has been a primary cause of overdose deaths in the US. Fentanyl can be injected, but it’s often smoked, consumed in pills, or mixed in with other illicit drugs.

With deadly fentanyl now widespread, what’s causing overdose deaths to decline nationally? Shifts in the supply of available illicit drugs impact overdose deaths. Much of the 2023 increase in overdose deaths in western states coincides with the availability of fentanyl in the regional illicit drug supply. It’s possible that overdose deaths are declining overall because the overdose epidemic has already claimed such a significant percentage of the illicit drug using population in eastern states. On a more hopeful note, the US could be reaping the benefits of overdose prevention efforts and addiction treatments.

I suggested some reforms to address overdose deaths in my 2022 column. At least one suggested reform has been implemented—increasing access to naloxone/Narcan. In March 2023, the FDA approved over-the-counter naloxone nasal spray. My other policy recommendations have not been implemented in a meaningful way, at least not in Georgia.

Opioid manufacturers and distributors are paying billions in restitution for their roles in the opioid epidemic. These funds should be invested in evidence-based programs and practices.

Effective drug education and other prevention programs are critical to reducing overdose deaths. Prevention programs are more likely to succeed if paired with consistent messaging from family, public health departments, community organizations, and religious institutions.

Drug interdiction efforts must be improved. It is essential to slow the illegal smuggling of fentanyl into our nation. Similarly, state and local police must disrupt drug distribution in our communities.

Access to quality healthcare combats addiction and prevents overdose deaths. It is essential to expand access to a range of addiction treatment programs, including inpatient rehab, outpatient rehab, and medication-assisted treatment. These programs remain out of reach for many folks living with addiction due to cost, limited providers in one’s area, or a lack of insurance coverage.

Georgia is one of ten states that have not accepted expanded Medicaid coverage, which would provide healthcare for all adults earning up to 138% of the federal poverty line. Expanding Medicaid coverage provides one avenue for improving access to addiction treatment programs and reducing overdose deaths.

Roscoe Scarborough, Ph.D. is chair of the Department of Social Sciences and associate professor of sociology at College of Coastal Georgia. He is an associate scholar at the Reg Murphy Center for Economic and Policy Studies. He can be reached by email at rscarborough@ccga.edu.

The Rural Healthcare Crisis

Written by Drew Cagle on . Posted in Reg Murphy.

Nationwide, 104 rural hospitals have closed since 2005, and more than half of those remaining operate in a financial deficit. According to a 2024 report by the Atlanta Journal Constitution, because of these closures, as well as the rising cost of medical care and insurance, people living in rural America now have a 43% higher chance of dying from otherwise common illnesses. This effect is especially pronounced among women, due to the lack of proper pregnancy-related care.

According to the Georgia Hospital Association, since 2013, 12 rural hospitals have closed in Georgia, leaving a void in critical services and forcing residents to travel longer distances to visit an ER, receive a primary care check-up, or access a specialist. The same report found that 18 of Georgia’s 30 remaining rural hospitals were in danger of closure.

One of the most debated solutions to improve healthcare access in rural areas is Medicaid expansion. Proponents argue that expanding Medicaid would provide insurance coverage to a larger portion of the population, thereby increasing access to necessary medical services and reducing unpaid medical debt, which weighs down cash poor rural hospitals.

According to the Georgia Budget and Policy Institute, expanding Medicaid could insure over 400,000 Georgians, many of whom reside in rural areas. Currently, Georgia is one of 10 states left that have not expanded Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act, a decision that has left many low-income individuals without coverage.

However, political opposition to Medicaid expansion remains strong in Georgia. Critics are concerned about the long-term financial stability of Medicaid and the potential for entitlement abuse. Despite these concerns, data from states that have expanded Medicaid show significant benefits, including reduced mortality rates and improved health outcomes for low-income populations.

As rural hospitals close and healthcare providers become scarcer, telemedicine has emerged as a potential solution to bridge the gap in healthcare access. Telemedicine allows patients to consult with doctors remotely, reducing the need for long-distance travel. In South Georgia, several initiatives have been launched to promote telemedicine.

For instance, the Georgia Partnership for TeleHealth has expanded its services, providing more than 200,000 telehealth encounters annually. Also, during and after COVID, the state allowed telemedicine providers to act much as an in-person doctor’s visit, such as allowing them to prescribe controlled medications.

In the face of these challenges, local communities in South Georgia are taking action. Community health centers, such as those operated by the Georgia Primary Care Association, provide essential services to underserved populations. These centers offer a sliding fee scale based on income, ensuring that financial barriers do not prevent individuals from receiving care.

Additionally, mobile health clinics bring medical services directly to remote areas, further enhancing access. Finally, the non-profit organization CareSource recently invested $5 million to keep rural hospitals open.

Addressing the healthcare crisis in rural South Georgia requires a multifaceted approach. Expanding Medicaid, investing in telemedicine infrastructure, and supporting local health initiatives are all critical steps toward ensuring that all residents have access to the care they need. Political leaders must prioritize these issues and work collaboratively to develop sustainable solutions for all Georgians.

As we move forward, it is essential to keep the well-being of our rural communities at the forefront of policy discussions. Access to healthcare is not just a political issue; it is a matter of life and death for many Georgians.

Drew S. Cagle, Ph.D. is an Assistant Professor of Political Science in the Department of Social Sciences at College of Coastal Georgia. He is an associate scholar at the Reg Murphy Center for Economic and Policy Studies. He can be reached by email at dcagle@ccga.edu.

CONSERVATION PAYS OFF

Written by Heather Farley on . Posted in Heather Farley, Reg Murphy.

In my last From the Murphy Center column, I wrote about the dwindling number of Atlantic right whales and the need for increased conservation efforts. There’s more to explore on this policy issue.

Shortly after I wrote the article, I learned about a wildlife campaign from the non-profit organization One Hundred Miles, urging the Biden Administration to issue expanded protections for right whales. As a conservationist, I support these actions enthusiastically, but as a policy analyst I am also thinking about the ‘why’ in our policy actions.

The question of why we should protect a critically endangered species might feel like an obvious one. We can’t just let them die off, right?! What a sad and unfortunate future that would be. For many of us, avoiding extinction is simply the right thing to do. While avoiding the extinction of a large charismatic species might tug at our heartstrings, however, policymakers often need pragmatic reasons.

In all policy decisions – in the development of laws, regulations, and agency rules – we are challenged with balancing competing interests. Expanding the habitat zone where vessel speeds must be reduced and increasing the number of vessels included in the rule will reduce vessel strikes and protect more whales (including right, humpback, fin, and sei whales), but it can also impact the maritime transport industry. The National Marine Manufacturers Association (NMMA), for example, contends that an expanded rule could put more than 810,000 jobs and nearly $230 billion in economic contributions at risk.

Given such a huge potential impact, what is the case for protecting the whales beyond the moral case alone? How does extinction impact us? Put simply, everything is tied to everything else. The interconnectedness of ecosystems means that the loss of a species can fundamentally change the ecosystem services available to us. The health of the marine ecosystem has far-reaching economic effects, especially on the food chain. In the case of the Atlantic right whale, effects would be seen in phytoplankton populations. Whale excrement is a nutrient source for these tiny ocean plants, which are vital for producing oxygen (about 50% of our earth’s oxygen) and sequestering carbon dioxide. They are also primary producers in the marine food web and impact fisheries. A decline in whales would result in a decline in phytoplankton which in turn impact fishery production. Will all the phytoplankton die suddenly if the right whale goes extinct? No. But that ecosystem will become less stable, less healthy, and less productive.

Just this month a study published in the journal Science highlighted that conservation efforts are not only highly effective in reducing biodiversity loss but also provide excellent economic returns. The study, a meta-analysis of 186 different studies and 665 trials, evaluated the impact of conservation interventions globally over the past century. The analysis revealed that more than half of the world’s total GDP, approximately $44 trillion, is moderately or highly dependent on ecosystem services. Investment in the conservation of these services proves to be highly beneficial; for every dollar spent on conservation, there is an estimated return of $100 in ecosystem services. Conservation works and it has the potential to improve both environmental and economic conditions.

Protecting the Atlantic right whale and other endangered species makes sense both economically and environmentally. Ecosystem health is closely tied to the survival of species. The interconnectedness of our ecosystems means that the loss of a single species can have cascading effects on biodiversity and the services these ecosystems provide. The recent study in Science underscores the significant economic returns on investment in conservation. By prioritizing conservation, we are safeguarding our natural resources and ensuring a healthier, more productive future.

Dr. Heather Farley is Chair of the Department of Business and Public Administration and Associate Professor of Public Management at the College of Coastal Georgia. She is an associate of the College’s Reg Murphy Center for Economic and Policy Studies and an environmental policy scholar. The opinions found in this article do not represent those of the College of Coastal Georgia.

The economics of summer camp

Written by Melissa Trussell on . Posted in Melissa Trussell, Reg Murphy.

For students attending Glynn County schools, this Friday marks the beginning of summer break! As a child I always enjoyed school, but I also approached summer with relief and excitement. Two whole months of play, vacationing, relaxing, summer camps, etc.—two whole months of just living the dream.

Now, as the parent of a school-aged child, summer break still brings an air of excitement, but it is far less carefree than it seemed as a child.

I realize now what a privileged childhood I had, with a two-parent household, and a full-time working dad who made enough money to allow my mom to stay home with my sisters and me full-time. My son certainly enjoys many privileges that come with my reduced summer work schedule, but summer break for the child of a single, working mom looks a lot different than my summer breaks did. We look forward to the beach days, the pool days, and summer travel, but like many children of working parents, my child also will spend many summer days in some form of childcare, often rebranded as “summer camp.”

Summer camp is big business! One local website lists 34 different organizations offering summer camp opportunities this year in the Golden Isles. Summer camps vary widely in price and depend on the length of camp, whether camp is day-only or overnight, and the types of activities campers will participate in. The American Camp Association says camp fees vary from less than $100 to over $1500 per week. In my experience shopping for day camps in the Golden Isles, average day camps around here are around here are $150-$250 per week.

The American Camp Association is currently collecting data for a national study on the economic impact of summer camps. Their website, though, cites a 2021 study of 348 day and overnight camps (600,000+ campers) in Wisconsin. The study finds a $717 million economic impact on the state from summer camps. A similar study in the Northeastern U.S. in 2017 found a $3.2 billion impact of summer camps in that region. But, these two studies include only the operating expenditures and employment of the camps.

If you read my last article for this column, you already can identify some major shortcomings of this measure of economic impact. If summer camps did not exist, these employees would not necessarily be unemployed, and the money spent on camp would not necessarily go unspent. Thus, this measure may be useful in some contexts, but it does not truly represent what is gained in the state’s economy through the existence of summer camps.

The true impact of summer camp is in the service it provides. The American Camp Association article mentions, but does not include in the economic impact calculation, the benefits to children of the physical, educational, and social activities camp offers. Camps not only offer enriching activities that add to what students learn throughout the school year, but they also can help to mitigate the effects of summer learning loss and helping students bounce back into school the next year with greater ease.

But, perhaps the most significant economic impact of summer camp is in labor force participation of parents, specifically women. The Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research  published findings that women’s employment-to-population ratio drops significantly from May to July. They find this drop is greatest among mothers of younger children, and they track the trend across states with differing school schedules to show that the drop in employment coincides with school closure. Women’s earnings fall 3.3 percent over the summer. And that is with the existence of summer camps! The true economic impact of summer camp is in how much greater the drop in women’s employment and wages would necessarily be without summer childcare.

In my family alone, that impact is huge. While I can do a lot of my summer working from home or while traveling, writing is especially hard with distractions. When you see publications or articles like this one from me during the summer break, we all have summer camp to thank.

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Dr. Melissa Trussell is a professor in the School of Business and Public Management at College of Coastal Georgia who works with the college’s Reg Murphy Center for Economic and Policy Studies. Contact her at mtrussell@ccga.edu. The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the College of Coastal Georgia.

Three Strong Economies: U.S., Georgia, and Glynn

Written by Don Mathews on . Posted in Don Mathews, Reg Murphy.

It warrants repeating: the performance of the U.S. economy over the past 4 years is remarkable.

Despite four years and counting of continuous adversity – the pandemic, followed by inflation, followed by the Federal Reserve’s tight monetary policy – the U.S. economy has posted decent or better real GDP growth in each of the last seven quarters and unemployment rates below 4% in each of the last 27 months.

More remarkable are the performances of the economies of Georgia and Glynn over the past four years. 

Both economies were strong heading into 2020. Georgia finished 2019 with a solid 3.3% increase in real gross state product. Its labor force grew by 82,622 to 5,208,593. Its labor market was tight: 96.5% of the 5,208,593 were employed.

County output data are of dubious reliability for my taste, but experience plus data related to output that are reliable indicate that the Glynn economy was thriving ahead of 2020. Most telling is the decrease in Glynn’s unemployment rate from 3.7% in 2018 to 3.5% in 2019. A tight local labor market that becomes even tighter is a symptom of a thriving local economy.

In March 2020, the pandemic hit. It hit Georgia hard. It hit Glynn harder.

In April, Georgia’s labor force sunk to 4,946,604; its unemployment rate jumped to 12.4%. In the first quarter of 2020, Georgia’s real GSP fell at an annualized rate of 8.7%. In the second quarter, it fell at an annualized rate of 26.7%.

In February 2020, Glynn’s labor force numbered 39,237; its unemployment rate, 3.4%. In April, Glynn’s labor force numbered 36,964; its unemployment rate, 16.4%.

The spike in Glynn’s unemployment rate is no surprise. The industry hit hardest by the pandemic was leisure and hospitality – Glynn’s largest industry. Leisure and hospitality typically accounts for around 22% of total employment in Glynn.

In the fourth quarter of 2019, leisure and hospitality employment in Glynn numbered 8,453. In the second quarter of 2020, it numbered 6,008.

The two economies clawed their way through the next five months, then surged in the last three. At year’s end, Georgia’s labor force numbered 5,166,537; its unemployment rate, 5.1%. Glynn’s labor force numbered 38,847; its unemployment rate, 4.8%. Leisure and hospitality employment in Glynn numbered 7,624.

To appreciate the rebound in Georgia and Glynn in the second half of 2020, note that the U.S., which was rebounding faster than any other nation, posted a year-end unemployment rate of 6.7%.

Extraordinary measures taken by the Federal Reserve in the first months of the pandemic caused the U.S. money supply to increase, from February 2020 to February 2022, by 40.5%. That caused the 12-month rate of inflation to increase from 1.4% in January 2021 to 9% in June 2022.

The Fed began its monetary tightening to check the inflation in March 2022. By August 2023, short-term interest rates were up four to five percentage points; medium and long-term rates were up three to four percentage points. And since August 2023, that’s where rates have remained.

In years past, monetary tightening of this magnitude would all but guarantee a recession. Thus far, our current Georgia and Glynn economies seem impervious to it. Georgia’s unemployment rate fell below 4% in July 2021 and has been no higher than 3.3% since November 2021. Glynn’s unemployment rate fell below 4% in April 2021 and has been below 3% more often than above 3% since November 2021.

A final note. In the U.S., leisure and hospitality employment has yet to surpass its pre-pandemic level. In Georgia, it did so in the second quarter of 2023; in Glynn, in the second quarter of 2022.

Why the Opposition to Mining the Okefenokee

Written by Roscoe Scarborough on . Posted in Reg Murphy, Roscoe Scarborough.

Twin Pines Minerals proposes to strip-mine for titanium and zirconium near the Okefenokee National Wildlife Refuge. However, there has been unprecedented opposition to the proposed mining. Why do people care about protecting the Okefenokee Swamp?

There have been more than a quarter million individual comments at the state and federal level about the proposed mining on private land adjacent to the Okefenokee National Wildlife Refuge, according the Southern Environmental Law Center. The SELC notes that at least 19 local governments have passed resolutions calling for protection of the Okefenokee and there have been numerous letters of opposition from elected officials on both sides of the aisle. Additionally, more than 70,000 comments were submitted to the Environmental Protection Division of the Georgia Department of Natural Resources during the public comment period on draft permits to mine the land adjacent to the Okefenokee.

For most of American history, swamps held negative connotations; they were viewed as wastelands that are only useful if converted into land that’s suitable for farming or development. Just a few years ago, Trump vowed to “drain the swamp” in Washington. Clearly, negative connotations about swamps persist.

My colleague, Dr. Chris Wilhelm, professor of history at the College of Coastal Georgia, explains shifting attitudes toward swamps in his book From Swamp to Wetland: The Creation of the Everglades National Park. The first national parks were developed out of a concern for protecting scenery for the benefit of tourism. The Everglades National Park was different because it was designed to protect the habitats and ranges of the indigenous flora and fauna.

The twentieth century saw a shift in Floridian and American attitudes toward the environment; people increasingly found value in ecological and biological diversity. The Florida Everglades came to be recognized as ecologically fragile and valuable “wetland” that required protective status. Politicians and the tourism industry saw the establishment of the Everglades National Park as a boon for tourism and economic growth.

The establishment of the park was a catalyst for modern environmental campaigns to protect wilderness and biological diversity in the US. According to Wilhelm, progressive conservationists’ concern with ecological and biocentric diversity laid the groundwork for modern environmentalism. Resistance to mining in the Okefenokee Swamp ecosystem is evidence that these attitudes have gone mainstream.

The Okefenokee Swamp is the largest blackwater wetland ecosystem in North America and the least disturbed freshwater ecosystem on the Atlantic Coastal Plain. Over 90% of the swamp is protected within the Okefenokee National Wildlife Refuge. Due to its high level of biodiversity and limited disruption by man’s activities, the Okefenokee is on the US Tentative List to be designated a UNESCO World Heritage Site.

There is concern that mining would do irreparable harm to the swamp. The proposed mining would occur on Trail Ridge, an earthen dam on the eastern side of the Okefenokee that maintains the swamp’s water levels. Additionally, one of the mining permits would allow the company to withdraw 1.4 million gallons per day from the Floridan Aquifer. Both permits threaten the hydrology and ecology of the Okefenokee.

The initial permits are for a 582-acre demonstration mine, but Twin Pines Minerals owns thousands of acres in the area. If approved, expanded mining operations are anticipated. Proponents of the proposed mine contend that the project will generate new jobs. Opponents of the mining warn that the project jeopardizes the local tourism economy associated with the swamp.

Georgia Senate Bill 132 would have imposed a three-year moratorium on new or expanded mining near the Okefenokee Swamp. The House passed SB132 with a vote of 167 to 4, but the bill was not brought up for a vote in the Senate before this year’s legislative session adjourned.

The Environmental Protection Division that issued draft mining permits will review and respond to public comments. There is no timeline for EPD’s final decision. What’s for sure is that the future of the Okefenokee and other wetlands will be shaped by federal and state politics, economic interests, environmentalists, and civically-engaged citizens.

Roscoe Scarborough, Ph.D. is chair of the Department of Social Sciences and associate professor of sociology at College of Coastal Georgia. He is an associate scholar at the Reg Murphy Center for Economic and Policy Studies. He can be reached by email at rscarborough@ccga.edu.

Doing “Right” by the Whales

Written by Heather Farley on . Posted in Heather Farley, Reg Murphy.

The excitement of another sea turtle season is upon us. Earth Day is coming up in mere days. But, the closing of our right whale season in Georgia has delivered some somber realities. The North Atlantic right whale is a well-known species in Coastal Georgia not because they are easily spotted, but because they are now so rare. Presently, there are only 360 right whales left, among whom only 70 are reproductive females. This small number means that the species’ survival depends on each successful birth during the calving season.

Births must outpace deaths for the species to persist, but females don’t become sexually mature until around age 10, they give birth to a single calf after a 12-month gestation, and females give birth on average every nine years. These factors add concern for the population’s continuation.

During the calving season, which spans from November through April in the Southeastern US, the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina become particularly active areas for calving. To reach our coast, these whales migrate from the Northeastern United States, encountering dangers such as boat strikes and entanglements in commercial fishing gear along the way.

Despite the birth of 19 calves this season, the species continues to suffer high mortality rates—four calves have already been lost this season. Two of those calves were found off Tybee Island and Cumberland Island respectively. Additionally, two young whales from previous seasons and an adult were all victims of vessel strikes or fishing gear entanglement, leading to death as well. According to the International Fund for Animal Welfare (IFAW), a stable right whale population requires 50 new births annually, while 20 signifies a productive breeding season. However, years of fewer than 20 new births could lead to extinction, with current models predicting the disappearance of the right whale by 2035.

Whaling, the initial major threat to the North Atlantic right whale, nearly drove the species to extinction by the 1890s. The abolition of whaling in the US in 1971 and in Canada in 1972, along with the Marine Mammal Protection Act of 1972 and the Endangered Species Act of 1973, mandated government protection for the whales and their habitat. However, the implementation of evidence-based solutions lagged.

The vessel strikes that have resulted in numerous right whale fatalities were preventable. Research indicates that limiting vessel speeds to 10 knots or less during calving season, in calving areas, could reduce ship strike mortality by 80–90%. Responding to this, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration issued mandatory vessel speed restrictions in 2008 along the U.S. eastern seaboard. Location reporting on the part of vessels is meant to ensure compliance. Despite this, fatal vessel strikes persist.

As it stands, the 2008 vessel speed rule is the primary measure protecting right whales from vessel strikes, with minimal defenses against commercial entanglement. Unfortunately, the 2008 vessel speed rule was applicable in areas and at times during the season that these whales were most likely to be at risk in 2008 – 16 years ago. Since then, right whales have shifted their habitat due to climate change, and new data indicate that smaller vessels also pose a significant risk to the whales. It is likely that the deceased calf found on Cumberland Island this year was killed by a vessel between 35 and 57 feet long. The regulation no long suffices.

Conservation organizations along with NOAA have proposed to strengthen the 2008 rule to align with these new migration patterns and vessel sizes. That proposal has been mired in legislative and court delays for two years. These conservation organizations are not willing to wait. The IFAW, in collaboration with other stakeholders, are engaging in campaigns to improve outcomes for the species. They have developed a Whale Alert App to allow communication between mariners and the public who have spotted whales. It serves as an alert to recreational and commercial vessels alike to be cautious. They are also working on trials of more advanced fishing gear that could reduce entanglements.

These kinds of solutions – strengthening legislation, improving technologies, and improving communication with seafarers – may provide a viable path to the protection of the right whale. It will take not only rules and regulations, but the commitment and empowerment of those on the water to ensure that right whales can safely live, raise their young, and migrate through the waters they share with humans. We owe that to them and to future Coastal Georgians.

Dr. Heather Farley is Chair of the Department of Business and Public Administration and Associate Professor of Public Management at the College of Coastal Georgia. She is an associate of the College’s Reg Murphy Center for Economic and Policy Studies and an environmental policy scholar. The opinions found in this article do not represent those of the College of Coastal Georgia.