A labor market is like a reflecting pool: it reflects what’s happening in the economy it’s a part of. Local labor market conditions suggest that the Glynn County economy remains unscathed by developments reflected in the U.S. labor market and, to a lesser degree, the Georgia labor market.
I say “suggest” in the second sentence for two reasons. One is we’ll be in the dark on labor market conditions since August until Congress resolves to turn the federal funding spigot back on. The other is the raw data the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) uses to produce labor market figures routinely dribble in late. When late data are thrown into the hopper, labor market figures can change.
In 2025, from January to August, the number in the U.S. labor force stayed put at 171 million, the number employed fell by half a million, the number unemployed rose by half a million and the unemployment rate rose from 4.0% to 4.3%.
The changes are not dramatic, but the bump in the unemployment rate and zero labor force growth reflect an economy that has encountered something that is pushing it backward.
Here’s a more dramatic change. In May, 20.4% of unemployed workers had been unemployed for 27 weeks or longer. The figure for August is 25.7%. That’s a big jump in only three months.
Labor market watchers describe the current U.S. labor market as stagnant, dormant, frozen. I prefer “hunkered down.” The labor market figures prompting such terms of inertness are figures BLS generates from its monthly Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS). Through JOLTS, BLS tracks job openings, hires, quits, layoffs and other separations by industry and region.
JOLTS figures for 2025 show that hires and quits have been falling since April. Job openings have been falling since May. The decreases are sharp. Lots of firms and lots of workers are hunkering down.
To economists, the timing of events is crucial. The initial drops in hires and quits came soon after the administration announced major increases in U.S. tariffs on April 2. Since April 2, the administration has been changing U.S. tariffs impulsively. Further drops in hires, quits and job openings have followed.
The timeline fits the economics exactly. That’s why economists blame the administration’s tariff policy for the U.S. labor market inertness. Higher U.S. tariffs mean higher costs for U.S. businesses; spasmodic tariff changes mean U.S. businesses cannot trust the ground underneath their feet. Higher costs prompt businesses to retrench hiring plans. Unstable ground prompts businesses to hunker down. When firms hunker down, workers hunker down.
Fortunately, Georgia’s labor market figures show no signs of any hunkering down. Georgia’s unemployment rate in January was 3.6%; in August, 3.4%. Yet, something’s awry. From July 2024 to August 2025, Georgia’s labor force has shrunk by almost 35,000 workers, a 6.4% drop.
Georgia’s labor force drop has accelerated since January 2025. The administration’s immigration policy is a possible cause. What’s behind the drop in the second half of 2024 is not clear.
Glynn’s labor market figures reflect a local economy that has been a model of strength and consistency since its quick recovery from the pandemic. The Glynn labor force has increased in each of the past four years. It’s still growing as of August 2025. Since September 2021, the unemployment rate in Glynn has ranged between 2.5% and 3.5%. It was 3.0% in the first month of this year; 3.1% in the eighth.
Ryan Moore, President & CEO of the Golden Isles Development Authority, knows the Glynn economy better than anyone. We’ll discuss his insights in my next column.
Reg Murphy Center