Finally, labor markets are tight again

Labor markets are always slow to recover from recessions, especially nasty recessions. And the last recession, the 2007-2009 recession, was nasty.

At long last, labor markets have largely recovered from that nasty recession. The national unemployment rate is down to 4 percent. Nine states – Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Iowa, Maine, Nebraska, North Dakota, Vermont and Wisconsin – have unemployment rates less than 3 percent. Only two states – Alaska and West Virginia – have unemployment rates greater than 5 percent.

Georgia’s unemployment rate is down to 4.2 percent. Nine Georgia counties have unemployment rates below 3 percent, while 81 – including Glynn at 3.3 percent, McIntosh at 3.7 percent and Camden at 3.8 percent – have unemployment rates between 3 and 3.9 percent. Only two Georgia counties have unemployment rates above 6 percent.

That’s how labor markets ought to be. Tight.

The labor market recovery has been remarkable, albeit protracted. Though the national recession ended in mid-2009, the national unemployment rate in 2011 was still 9 percent. By the end of 2015, it had fallen to 5 percent.

The labor market recovery in Georgia has been even more remarkable.

In 2011, Georgia’s unemployment was still 10.2 percent. Not a single Georgia county had an unemployment rate below 7 percent. Fully 118 of our 159 counties had unemployment rates in excess of 10 percent.

By the end of 2015, Georgia’s unemployment rate had fallen to 5.6 percent. Only one Georgia county had an unemployment rate greater than 10 percent.

The labor market recovery on the South Georgia coast has been more remarkable still.

We hardly need reminding that the recession hit harder and lasted longer in our neck of the woods than in most other necks of the woods. In 2011, Glynn’s unemployment rate was 10.4 percent, McIntosh’s was 10.6 percent, Wayne’s was 12.1 percent and Brantley’s was 13.2 percent.

By mid-2014, local unemployment rates were still alarmingly high: 8.1 percent in Glynn, 8.5 in McIntosh, 9.6 in Wayne and 10 percent in Brantley.

Brantley’s current unemployment rate of 4 percent is the lowest it has been since 2004. Wayne’s current unemployment rate of 4.2 percent is the lowest it has been this century.

Now there’s just one piece of the local labor market recovery left to complete.

During recessions, the labor force often shrinks. During the last recession, the nation’s labor force decreased by 2.4 percent, while Georgia’s fell by 6.5 percent.

Local labor forces shrunk much more. During the last recession, McIntosh’s labor force decreased by 11 percent, Wayne’s by 12 percent, Glynn’s by 13 percent and Brantley’s by 15 percent.

Recoveries draw people back into the labor force. The labor forces of both the U.S. and Georgia are now 3 percent larger than their previous peaks.

Unfortunately, the same cannot be said for local labor forces. Local labor forces are growing again but remain below their previous peaks. The labor forces of Glynn and McIntosh are 3 percent below their previous peaks, while Brantley’s and Wayne’s are off by 7 and 11 percent from their previous peaks.

We’re getting there, though, and the low unemployment rates are truly welcome.